all right, time for a couple quick e-mails, john tower. what do you got? john, whenever you're ready. it's the other button. there you go, my friend. that's it. >> let's try this again. >> maybe i should leave today. >> lisa writes, i am cooking for 250 friends and family for our tenth annual family pumpkin day. starting the corn chowder now. >> 250 people. we've got to find out where that is. is it willover? >> willover. >> willover family pumpkin festival. i want in on that action. one more. >> pat, are bill karins and raul ibanez related? bill looks lycra you'll's hair are little brother. >> no, that's slanderous. we're not going to stand by and let you say that. tower, read that one again.

that was good. i like that one. >> are bill karins and raul ibanez related? bill looks lycike raul's hairy little brother. >> "morning joe" starts right now. that debate, what happened? >> well, governor romney had a good night. i had a bad night. >> how bad? >> well, it's not the first time i've had a bad night, but i think what's important is that the fundamentals of what this race is about haven't changed. governor romney went to a lot of trouble to try to hide what his positions are because he knows that those ideas have been rejected. they won't work. and if he's making an honest presentation about what he's proposed, he will lose because the american people are not going to go back there. >> good morning. it's thursday, october 11th. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set, we have former mccain senior campaign

strategist and msnbc political analyst steve schmidt. up bright and early this morning. looking good. >> you look beautiful. >> we also have former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst, i still like financier better. >> i'm going to say financier. >> steve ratner. >> wait a minute. am i not beautiful? >> you're gorgeous. >> like a rainbow, as cyndi lauper would say. >> what did we talk about yesterday? and from the site of tonight's vice presidential debate in danville, kentucky, msnbc and "time" magazine senior editor mark halperin. >> godspeed. so mika, we've got 26 days left. until the election. is that a word? i saw it on the front of "sports illustrated." we have a passel of polls that are pounding us this morning. and this race is a toss-up. >> it is. >> in all the swing states. it's a toss-up in all the swing states. and we've got a debate coming

up. and my gosh, there's so much political news. it only makes sense that we start with baseball. willie. >> no. no. >> unbelievable night last night. >> we could talk about lance armstrong. >> the 162nd day of the season last year. last night, holy cow! >> where do you begin? where do you begin? >> let's start with the yanks. >> okay. >> let's start with the yanks. it's unbelievable. >> this newspaper tells the whole story. >> this is the story. >> if you can get a shot of that. that's a picture of raul ibanez, pinch-hitter raul ibanez with the headline "a-who!" >> that guy is a natural. >> alex rodriguez believed to be one of the three or four greatest players who ever lived. in crunch time in the ninth last night in a one-run game was pulled back to the bench, benched by manager joe girardi, and they inserted pinch-hitter raul ibanez, made girardi look like a genius to tie the game in

the ninth. >> this guy is the natural. that's great. how can this story get any better? >> well, it's funny you ask, joe. in the bottom of the 12th, he comes up for a second time, hits another home run. two pitches, two home runs for raul ibanez as alex rodriguez watches from the dugout. >> when i'm watching this thing, and it's really late. i'm, like, i've got to go to bed, right? but i see a catfight going on in oakland. >> oakland. >> i love detroit. i've always loved the tigers. it's the first series i remember, but my gosh, how do you not love the a's? last night their back's against the wall. >> same thing. remember they were down 13 games in their division this summer. they came back to win their division on the last day of the season. they came back last night in the ninth, down two runs. they got a base hit to tie it. and now coco crisp hits the game winner. >> do you believe that? >> three runs in the bottom of the ninth. coco crisp is the hero. and now they get a game five. they were down 2-0 in the series.

now they have a game five at home against justin verlander of the tigers. >> a couple of outs away from being eliminated. >> yep. >> these guys have the most incredible story. i mean, you've seen it so many times. it's like, steve, they're a team of destiny. >> it's amazing. it's amazing to watch them come back, and it's great. it makes you feel incredibly energized to see them do that. >> and you see those colors run ago cross. it takes us old guys back to the early 1970s. >> gene tennis. >> tennis the menace, baby. so mika, you want to talk about dope. >> no, i don't. i know you're going to talk about it, so get it over with. >> lance armstrong in the middle of a doping scheme? whoever saw that one coming? by the way, thank you. i got a present this morning from steve ratner. tell everybody what they're looking at here. >> what they're looking at is the program for the memorial service that was held for "the new york times" former publisher

mostly for employees last friday. and it's a wonderful set of tributes inside and remembrances from the whole staff to a really, really great publisher and a great man. >> you worked under him? willie, your dad worked under him. >> yeah, he did. he hired my dad in 1979/1980. >> he's obviously most famous for the pentagon papers and for standing up for what was right in that case, but there are so many other cases where he defended journalism, defended his reporters, put the money behind his reporters to produce these kinds of newspapers and really will go down as a great hero of the newspaper business. >> he certainly will. mika, let's turn to the numbers now. >> okay. >> this race could not be any closer. what would dan say? it's tight as a tick on a -- what kind of -- >> did you say what would who say? dan rather. >> as tight as a tick on what dog? starts with a "t." >> terrier. >> okay. hold it. >> okay, okay, okay. yeah. >> this race is as tight as a tick on a texas terrier.

>> all right. >> take us through the polls. >> we have to bring him in for some of those. >> dan rather, can you come in? we need you to do this for us. >> new numbers released this morning show a tightening race among key likely voters in three critical swing states. in ohio, the nbc news/"wall street journal poll shows obama hanging on to a six-point lead, 51-45%, a two-point game for romney from last week. but pollsters note this ohio poll include an 11-point voters for self-described democrats, higher than last week's five-point advantage. >> what's it say right here? i'm waiting for the ohio polls because that doesn't make sense. we'll talk to chuck about why they did it. as you noted and as chuck has noted, republicans are more energized about coming out. an 11-point spread doesn't make sense. let's talk about other polls. >> in florida where it was a one-point race before the debate, this morning it is still a one-point lead for obama,

48%-47%. it's virginia where the republican candidate is seeing some of his biggest gains. the two candidates now in a virtual tie. romney has edge add head of the president 48%-47%, a three-point reversal from a week ago. and according to a "new york times"/cbs poll, mitt romney leads the president by one point in colorado. last month the president was up one point in that state. in virginia, president obama's lead from last month grew slightly. he's now up 51%-46%. and in wisconsin, the candidates are within the margin of error after the president lost a point from last month and mitt romney gained two. in all three battleground states, voters by double digits believe the economy is getting better compared to the numbers back in july. >> and mark halperin, that may be the big takeaway from this poll. the race is getting much closer. nobody can predict what's going to happen. if you look at a big friend, thoug trend, you've got to look at a lot of americans in these swing

states are looking at the economy saying things are getting better. >> it's clearly a huge factor and yet, obviously, the debate from denver is also a huge factor. i think, you know, we look a lot at the margin of error, and these numbers aren't shifting all that much. what's key is in a lot of the states the president is below 50. that's a danger sign for him. the economy is getting better. it all goes back to the electoral college. you play with the numbers, look at these polls, romney still has to win six or seven or maybe eight of the battleground states in order to take this. and right now he's not there. but he's in a better position clearly than he was a week ago. the economy getting better has caused romney to switch a little bit, talking not just about the economy but also about leadership and also trying to make himself a more acceptable alternative both personally and ideologically. >> steve, you look at these numbers, you've got to be thinking one thing if you're running a campaign, turnout, turnout, turnout. turnout will make a difference. >> turnout's going to make the

difference, but one of the things that's going to help drive turnout is that momentum. and clearly 26 days out mitt romney's got momentum in this race. he was staring into the abyss a week ago. you look at all of the polls, and you look at the real clear politics average from last night where they average all these polls together, mitt romney ahead at that national average for the first time, getting very, very tight in these swing states. you know, i think that romney, you know, that tonight, you know, joe biden's got to do what dick cheney did eight years ago. he's got to stop the momentum. >> stop the bleeding. >> that the democrats had coming out of that bad debate, that first debate with president bush. >> steve ratner, you're a numbers guy. it looks like they're tightening up everywhere. >> i think they are, but mark made the important point that what romney has to put together to win this is still pretty formidable. i come partly out of self-interest of the state of ohio which has had to be won by a republican for them to win the presidency. and the polls have tightened there as well, but they were ten points apart not very long ago.

and you've got a state where the unemployment rate is 7.2%. you've obviously got the auto thing on one side of the state. you've got the gas on the other side of the state. ohio to me looks very tough for romney. >> all right. so tonight we move on and add this to the conversation. vice president joe biden, a seasoned debater, will face off against congressman paul ryan who's making his debut on the national debate stage. the vice president has more experience, but polling shows his opponent has the popularity advantage. a new pew poll -- >> wait, wait, i don't understand. >> what? >> i've read that everybody hates paul ryan. >> no, no, no, i've told you, he's adorable. a new pew poll -- that is just not true. >> he's mean. he wants to throw granny off a cliff. >> now you're playing it. >> steve schmidt, this is shocking. >> come on, you two, we're not that dumb. >> i've heard paul ryan is just mean. >> let me add something to this. a new pew poll shows a majority of voters view the vice president unfavorably by a

51%-39% margin. for congressman ryan, it's more evenly divided, 40% view him unfavorably. expectations for biden's performance tonight in kentucky are also fairly low which is perhaps an advantage. 40% say they expect ryan will do a better job in the debate. 34% for mr. biden. >> you know, we go into this debate, mark halperin, with expectations low for the democrat. last time they were low for the republican. i think we may have these backwards. we've said from the beginning mitt romney is a very good debater. the same with joe biden. i thought joe biden and chris dodd were the best debaters back in 2008. they both were grit in this forum, and i'm sure biden's going to be great tonight. >> well, i'll stipulate three things. one is -- and i'm not being facetious here, i mean this literally -- paul ryan, joe

biden are two of the nicest, most enjoyable people in politics for us to cover and as people. i think favorability for both should be about 100. two, this debate will only matter in the race if one of them has a super strong debate and one of them has a weak debate. otherwise i think voters are focused on the top of the ticket, not on this. and finally, i think these guys are both going to be prepared. they both have some potential trouble spots, but i think they're both very well prepared. they're both smart. and i think they'll probably fight it out to a draw. the vice president wants to focus on ryan's budget. paul ryan wants to focus on the question of why would the next four years be different than the last four years on the economy? like i said, my guess is they're going to fight to a draw. >> all right. and this is kind of an interesting story. abc news is insisting there will be no conflict of interest when martha raddatz delivers the questions tonight at the vice president ial debate. the daily caller revealed that barack obama attended her wedding in 1991 when he was a

student at harvard law school. the man she married was later tapped to head the fcc by president obama in 2009. that's 12 years after the couple divorced, by the way. abc news responded saying in part, this is absurd. martha raddatz is known for her tough, fair reporting which is why it was no surprise to her colleagues inside and outside of abc news that she was chosen by the commission on presidential debates for this assignment. a spokesman for paul ryan and the nonpartisan debate commission both said they have no concern over whether raddatz would be impartial during the debate. >> mika, what do you think? >> she's an incredible journalist. i'm not worried about her being objective. >> not in the least. >> i think these things -- i don't know if she disclosed this, but these things should be out there. we should be as transparent as we can about our family connections. >> exactly. >> i don't know if she was. >> everybody thinks martha raddatz is a great reporter. >> she's fantastic. >> one of the best that we have. that said, abc news should have

been transparent and said that there was a connection. >> maybe they were. i don't remember reading it. >> no, abc has been pushing back on this story for a very long time. and there has to be some transparency there. nobody that knows martha raddatz is going to assume that it's going to make her, you know, pull punches at all. but again, this is -- you know, be transparent. it's not a small thing that barack obama went to her wedding. >> it's not a small thing. look no further than steve schmidt four years ago with gwen ifil. remember we found out right before the debate for the first time that she had written this book. was that a concern to you guys at all in terms of her being a fair arbiter? >> no, but we worked with it, and mika's right. the transparency issues are important. but she's a four-star journalist with a lot of integrity and, you know, it won't be an issue. but if you reverse the lens of it --

>> i was just going to say. what happens if david axelrod, our dear friend, finds out a couple of days before a debate that the debate moderator went to mitt romney's wedding? >> it would be like the apocalypse. >> kaboom. and "the new york times" would have it on the front page. i mean -- >> wait, wait. >> locusts would sing from the heavens. >> obama went to her wedding because he went to law school with her first husband who she is now divorced from. he didn't go to the wedding because he was friendly with martha raddatz. >> he went to the wedding. you don't think that should be -- you don't think that should be revealed? >> i totally think it should be revealed. totally. >> we're not talking about martha here. we're talking about abc news, they had a responsibility to get that out there. i mean, it's an oversight, maybe, but don't act shocked and stunned that republicans may be putting a question mark over this. >> these types of stories, if it was a politician are covered by news organizations all the time.

no one should fall out of their chair that this should be talked about. >> except for news organizations who don't want the same oversight they give politicians. >> that's something we need to look at dpoown the road. i think they ought to have reporters be transparent. everyone here knows everything about everybody. you guys know i have a brother who works for romney, one who works for obama and a father who talks about each candidate differently. the bottom line, does that change what you think about what i say? it might, but i'm confident to put out there completely what you know about my family affiliations and who i vote for. and then i from there try and be fair. i don't understand why reporters hide their sort of -- the essence of who they are. because it is by which the lens that you see things through. and i think people deserve to see that. if nobody knew this about her -- >> the fact that you voted for

obama last time. >> he's voting for romney still. >> that's actually a good point. i didn't vote for him last time. and i came out and i actually wrote an op-ed saying i voted for ron paul at the end of the process. if i had figured that out in the middle of the republican primary, i would have said it in the middle of the republican primary. >> i would have preferred to know this about martha. >> i've already told people that i'm going to vote for mitt romney. just because i believe he's going to get the economy going, so people know that. they can factor that in. >> and they still call you a rhino. >> that's a different problem. >> not today. just the chee-to eaters on the far, far, far right. >> exactly. my point is -- >> let's ask mark halperin. >> halperin. >> what do you think, mark? there is a concern about a built-in media bias. i think it's a legitimate concern by conservatives, and it has been for years. don't you think abc should have just put this information out early? would have defused it months ago. >> well, first of all, i was martha's longtime colleague, and i'll echo what you all said,

she's really one of the best reporters america has. i think a lot of people will be seeing her focused on this context for the first time. they are credibility and fairness and integrity is beyond question. i think they said it on twitter best, which is i'm sure she can be fair because everybody's very objective about their ex-husband's best friend from their wedding. if there's a question about bias, it may cut the other way. i don't think anybody's acting shocked that it's disclosed, not disclosed. i really think it's a nonissue. there's so many incidents of bias in the media that for people to focus on this, judge her by her work both in the past and how tough she's been on administrations of both parties. judge her tonight where i'm sure she'll be outstanding. there are plenty of other things to talk about, with all due respect, who went to martha's wedding, who's on the groom's side of martha's wedding many years ago. >> do you think viewers don't have a right to know that

information? >> they have a right to know, but, you know, they have a right to know everything about martha, not just this one thing. >> i agree. that's what i'm saying. we should know everything about people. >> i would love for everybody's political affiliations to be laid bare, that report and speak from a voice of god. >> i would like to know everything about mika, everything. >> oh, my god. >> well, there we go. not much here. >> i think we just moved to donny deutsch. >> that was deutschesque. >> don't do that. >> deutschesque. >> no, you're good. >> we've got one more great story. >> last night, round three in the closely contested u.s. senate race in massachusetts. republican senator scott brown and democratic challenger elizabeth warren, ratner, faced off in springfield as two new polls are split on which candidate has the advantage. unlike the first two debates, last night there was no mention of elizabeth warren's native american heritage, but there was plenty of jousting on policy issues like job creation, taxes and which candidate is best for

the middle class. >> the one thing we can't be doing right now in the middle of this 3 1/2-year recession is by taking more money out of people's hardworking pocketbooks and wallets and giving it to the federal government. they're like pigs in a trough up there that will just take and take and take and take. >> this has been pretty much my life's work is talking about what's happening to america's middle class. and let's face it. america's middle class has just been getting hammered. republicans have a vision. cut taxes for those at the top and let the chips fall where they may for everybody else. >> when you're talking about getting hammered, professor warren, i suggest you put down the hammer because it's your regulations and your policies that are going to be hurting. >> what? what? he cares about the middle class. >> i feel bad for scott brown. >> he cares about the fact, as joe biden said, the middle class has been pummeled over the past four years.

he cares. maybe he cares too much. you know, what i learned the first time i ran, it's a lot harder to deliver that line, and it just is, to a woman than it is a man. >> no doubt. >> actually, to a person with the credibility for really trying to save the middle class might be the bigger point. >> well, that might be a bigger point. i'm just talking, though. >> you can add. she's a woman. >> i was in debates where i won going away, but i was seen having a heavy hand, and it blew up in my face because i was debating a woman instead of a man. and a lot of people might say oh, my god, it's terrible. well, it's terrible and it's cold and crappy up here in the winter, but that's the reality. i think scott brown, i think he made a mistake there. >> no doubt. you know, you have that iconic moment with rick lazio and hillary clinton. i think it's the hardest thing to do in politics is for the male candidate to debate the female candidate in that you

have to be so careful. you just can't deliver lines like that. >> last presidential election. >> so hard to do it effectively. >> i echo what mike barnicle has been saying, too. the polls in massachusetts for president obama are so good that it's going to hurt scott brown. 20, 25 points. and you heard it last night, elizabeth warren tying scott brown to mitt romney's policies on health care and everything else. >> i just got nervous when you were about to quote mike barnicle and talking about women. >> i moved quickly. >> smart. >> listen, though, the polls are really tight, but steves, twhat is it, scott brown that is to win 300,000 votes for people that are voting for obama? >> yeah, i think the margin in massachusetts may even be larger. the last poll i saw there, obama was up 30 points. i think it's very hard. steve schmidt would probably agree to pull the other lever when you've got that kind of a margin. >> are you joining me later for the elizabeth warren phone banks? >> oh, yeah. make sure you send me the time

and place. coming up, republican congressman aaron shock of illinois. newark mayor cory booker. obama deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter and moderator of "meet the press," david gregory. >> little-known fact, mayor booker just tweeted that he was going to be on the show while he was running out of a burning building. >> is he going to bring a baby here? god, i hope so. a baby he saved. up next, mike allen with the top stories in the "politico playok." first, here's bill karins -- big baby -- with the forecast. wah, wah, wah. >> still weaning me. >> oh. wow! >> that didn't come across. >> no, that didn't. >> where's barnicle when i need him to get me out of that one? good morning, everyone. it's a cold, cold morning across the great lakes, ohio valley and the northeast. windchills this morning in the 20s in some areas. we're in the 40s right along the mid-atlantic. it's a cold morning for your kids and for yourself as you head out today. this afternoon with the bright sunshine, it will be a nice

thursday afternoon. temperatures getting up there, the upper 50s to low 60s. no problems at the airports today. leave the umbrella home. a lot of dry weather across the country. the exceptions, a chance of some showers and thunderstorms in los angeles and phoenix. i can ignore that, maybe. temperatures also continue to get warmer as we go throughout the northern half of the country. i'm going to go hide for a little bit, and "morning joe" will be back in a little bit. we're brewed by starbucks. welcome aboard! [ chuckles ] ♪ [ honk! ] ♪

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good morning. let's take a look at the "morning papers."

>> let's do that, from our parade of papers, "chicago tribune," rahm emanuel is promising to close the city's $300 million budget deficit without raising taxes and fees this year. in his annual budget speech, emanuel took aim at chicago's pensions, warning that without reform, the city could raise property taxes in the future by as much as 150%. that is tough news. >> that is tough sledding. in "the wall street journal," the deaths of four americans on the attack on the consulate in benghazi sparked political fighting during hearings on capitol hill yesterday. security officials charged with protecting the compound testified that requests to keep an american military team in libya were denied. and that protection was cut in the weeks leading up to the deadly assault. >> we were fighting a losing battle. we couldn't even keep what we had. we were not even allowed to keep what we had. >> it was abundantly clear, we were not going to get resources

until the aftermath of an incident. >> this story is going to just grow. and it's looking very, very bad for the administration and the decisions that were made to cut security there. state department officials have said that keeping the team on site likely would not have changed the outcome of the attack because the team was based in tripoli. >> all right. that's a look at the headlines. to politico now. >> willie, you brought this up yesterday. the state department statements make no sense at all. susan rice's statements five days after made no sense. the white house's back-and-forth to responses. boy, this story keeps growing. >> the state department couldn't have been more clear. they said there were no protests. now you have politics entering this. nancy pelosi and other democrats blaming congressional republicans for the death of a u.s. ambassador because they voted to cut security of diplomats around the world.

politics has been injected into this unfortunately. with us now, chief white house correspondent for politico, mike allen. >> happy debate day. >> a new ad putting jobs first. and he's using that debate footage. let's take a look. >> look at the evidence of the last four years. we've got 23 million people out of work or stopped looking for work. they're suffering in this country. the president would prefer raising taxes. the problem with raising taxes is that it slows down the rate of growth. i'm not going to raise taxes on anyone because when the economy's growing slow like this, when we're in recession, you shouldn't raise taxes on anyone. my plan is to bring down rates to get more people working. my priority is putting people back to work in america. i'm mitt romney, and i approved this message. >> mike, the romney campaign is getting a lot of mileage out of that debate, aren't they? >> they are. and this ad is running in ohio, virginia, florida, those other sensitive swing states. and we see a couple things in this ad.

one we see footage of president obama looking down, reminding people of that debate. we also see mitt romney talking. and this is something very interesting. in the presidential ads, more and more we're going to see the candidate talking and not using his opponent. republicans tell me that in focus groups, they have found that at this point in the cycle, people are so cynical, people are so overrun by these ads that if you use a clip of your opponent, people assume you're taking it out of context. and those ads don't test well no matter what you're having them say. so this is why we have romney talking. it's called putting jobs first, which is, of course, a play on the old clinton/gore putting people first. >> steve, we talked a week ago at this time the morning after the debate that it would only matter if it meant something beyond one night. it mattered what the romney campaign did with it. how has the romney campaign done now a full week later?

>> well, they've had tremendous momentum off of that debate over the last week. i think that's one of the most effective ads that they've put out during the entirety of the campaign. one of the things you hear democrats now saying is you've got to go after romney. you've got to call him a liar. you've got to be tougher. you've got to demagogue them, you've got to hit them. and when you see mitt romney talk, that becomes all the more difficult to do. and i think romney's success has been compounded by a lot of mistakes that have been made on the democratic side over the course of the last week. so he's in the best week of his campaign. >> and you look at that speech -- mika always says that's not the look, thank god, it's the voice that makes such a big difference. and a lot of people that really understand politics always said reagan was a great communicator because of his voice. listen to mitt romney's voice there. it's the first time he doesn't sound sort of stilted and staged and awkward. it sounds natural. and i think -- i agree with steve. i think that's romney's best ad,

the romney campaign's best ad. >> mike allen, you think they've done enough with it over the last week with the debate? >> yeah. and we're going to hear paul ryan try and build on that tonight. ryan advisers say that he's going to be aggressive about saying hey, these are what we're really going to do. he'll do best if he's saying joe, that just isn't right. that's not what we're going to do. this is my plan and try and correct the record. you all have been talking about the moderator, martha raddatz. martha raddatz was played in debate prep for biden by his communications director, shayla murray and kerry healy, lieutenant governor of massachusetts. they're very focused on the moderator. ryan has even watched videotapes of raddatz's roundtables to get a sense of her style. >> mike allen with a look at the politico playbook. coming up next, joe girardi

pinch-hits for a-rod with the game on the line in the bottom of the ninth. we'll show you how a guy who makes 1/30th of a-rod's salary became the hero. sports is next. i'm bara ck o bama, and i approve this message. "i'm not in favor of a $5 trillion tax cut. that's not my plan." mitchell: "the nonpartisan tax policy center concluded that mitt romney's tax plan would cost $4.8 trillion over 10 years." vo: why won't romney level with us about his tax plan, which gives the wealthy huge new tax breaks? because according to experts, he'd have to raise taxes on the middle class - or increase the deficit to pay for it. if we can't trust him here... how could we ever trust him here? not in this economy. we also have zero free time, and my dad moving in. so we went to fidelity. we looked at our family's goals and some ways to help us get there. they helped me fix my economy,

the one in my house. now they're managing my investments for me. and with fidelity, getting back on track was easier than i thought. call or come in today to take control of your personal economy. get one-on-one help from america's retirement leader.

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all right, let's get you the full highlights on those

incredible games last night in the playoffs. splitting the first two games in baltimore, the yankees and orioles picked off where they left off last night with a heartstopper in the bronx, the story was a-rod. more on that in a second. third inning, yankees down with a one with two outs. derek jeter connects. adam jones just misplays it. it drops in. russell martin scores. jeter hustles around for a triple. that ties it at 1-1. same score in the fifth. manny machado, this kid is incredible. solo home run puts the orioles up a run. on to the bottom of the ninth. yankees ill down one with one out. a-rod is due up, but he's 1 for 12 in the series with 7 strikeouts, so girardi pulls him back and inserts pinch-hitter raul ibanez. yes, 40-year-old raul ibanez. first pitch he sees, home run with one out in the bottom of the ninth. 2-2. now bottom of the 12th, still

tied at 2-2. ibanez up again with a chance to play the hero again. >> since being in the bull pen -- did he do it again? he did! >> alex rodriguez and his 647 career home runs sitting in the dugout as raul ibanez, the guy who pinch-hit for him, wins the game. 40 years old, makes $1.1 million a year. a-rod makes $30 million a year and is fifth on the all-time home run list, benched. yankees take a 2-1 series lead. you can't overstate how big that game is. >> by the way, that never happens to the orioles either. they were the first team since 1900 -- what's the stat? >> great point. the first team since 1900 that had never in a single season

lost a walkoff game. so they didn't lose one. that says everything about their bull pen and their closer. >> 40-year-old guy, older than a-rod, by the way. >> by a couple of years. >> if they go on and win the series, you've got to put this one right up there in october lore for the yankees. >> no question about it. and joe girardi this morning looks like a genius, a gutsy move to bench his highest paid player in favor of raul ibanez. >> i just had a gut feeling. we talked about it in the pregame of being a great pinch-hitter and you've got a left-handed hitter who's a low-ball hitter and a low-ball pitcher. i just kind of had a gut feeling. >> a little bit of bad news for the yankees. jeter left the game in the eighth inning, fouled the ball off his foot in the third but he says he'll be back for game four tonight to close out the series. >> how do you feel about tonight? >> i feel a lot better than i did about six hours ago when we were down 2-1 with maybe the best closer in the game coming

on. >> who are you pitching tonight? >> we have two chances at home to win the series. phil hughes goes tonight. he's been good late in the season. you feel good about it. incredible game on the other side out west in oakland, a's themselves facing elimination for the second straight night. let's go right to the ninth inning. oakland down 3-1. three outs away from ending their season. seth smith, though, up with two men on. delivers a base hit with runners on second and third. that ties the game at 3-3, and they come back again. they've pulled even. two outs later, smith on second base now. coco crisp at the plate. the ball is misplayed in the outfield. the winning run scores. >> can you believe this, willie? >> they're incredible. >> what a story! >> they've got no mope ney to spend, but somehow they're getting it done. >> lowest payroll in the majors. >> they had 14 walkoff wins in the regular season, that led the majors. you can add one more in the postseason. they win 4-3. so you get a decisive game five tonight in oakland.

>> so another story, though, is the nats. another cinderella story. their backs are up against the wall now, right? >> they're in trouble. they got their doors blown off at home yesterday. it was the first playoff game in washington forever. the crowd was up. they lost 8-0. so now they face elimination at home against the cardinals. >> what is it about the st. louis cardinals? i mean, you know, we always talk about the yankees in october. what is it about the cardinals? you let them in the playoffs -- >> they've got good pitching, and there's always a guy. remember it was david freese last year, who is this guy? and he just comes up time and time again. yesterday it was this kid kozma. they always seem to find these guys. they're looking good to close the series out. coming up next, editor of bloomberg businessweek, josh tyrangiel joins us. keep it here on "morning joe." i've worked hard to build my family.

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with us now, the editor of bloomberg businessweek, josh tyrangiel. he's here with the election issue. i love this magazine. just take you inside. >> we thought about this in march. answer some questions about the state of the american economy. and the way we did it was, we went to reagan. in that debate, at the very end of the debate, reagan was actually behind at that point. and he spoke to the heart of the american people. and he said, are you better off than you were four years ago? people tend to forget, though, there were four questions after that. it was like reagan's political sader. is it easier to buy stuff in the

stores? is america as respected as it was four years ago? and is our security as strong? and so, look, there's a lot of partisanship. the media gets accused all of time of having its thumb on the scale. let's answer these questions. apolitically. we're known for data. we went in and answered them. >> let's look at them. unemployment, are you better off than you were four years ago? >> by the numbers, 7.8%, 7.8%. but we know a lot of people have left the work force, there's a lot of job dissatisfaction. and the key there is the median family income is just about flat but costs in the united states have gone up. so really your money has gone about 8% less far than it did four years ago. >> you talk next about troops in afghanistan. >> wow. >> yeah, troops in afghanistan, you can see the numbers. you know, they're way, way down. but actually, the numbers that you really want to focus on are iraq. that is a promise that obama made and that's a promise that obama kept. >> are you better off now than you were four years ago in terms

of the budget deficit and the gdp? >> so on gdp yes, on budget deficit, clearly you can see we have taken on a lot of money. now, what's interesting about the budget deficit is where it actually comes from. i think a lot of people presume that the stimulus is responsible for most of that. and in fact, it's not true. if you look at our deficit and our debt, the debt number between 2001 and 2010 has gone way, way up. 17% of that is the bush tax cuts. about 12%, 13% of that are the wars in iraq and afghanistan. the stimulus is responsible for 7%. >> okay. so over the past four years, though, we've had trillion-dollar deficits. >> yep. >> all four years. what's the cause of that? >> well, the cause of that is clearly stimulus spending but also a lack of revenue. the revenue numbers that we had projected were much, much greater. you know, unemployment is responsible for that. lower taxes are responsible for that. and the obama administration has lowered taxes consistently. it's brought in less revenue. >> let's look at the question

about the dow jones average. it's fascinating. this president has been seen as being hostile to wall street. wall street believes that wall street has been treated badly. you look at these numbers, and you have to ask that bill clinton question, are you going to believe me or your liein' eyes? >> the fact is that the dow did take a small dump right before obama became president. >> that's one way to put it. >> so he is a beneficiary of this massive rise. >> i now can see it. >> we've got to introduce to you bill karins, but go ahead. >> the dow was way, way down when obama took office. and it has basically doubled during his tenure. the fact is a lot of americans were not invested in it. a lot of americans pulled their money out of their mutual funds. they're either sitting on the sidelines or sitting in bonds. >> mark halhalperin, i'm sure wl hear a lot of this tonight. the question, are you better off now than you were four years ago? it sounds like the president has some arguments to make as do the republicans.

>> he does. and of course, joe biden's big line of, you know, general motors is alive, osama bin laden is dead frames two of the things that the white house would say is better. i think that's the biggest challenge for paul ryan tonight is to focus on that question. still what i think is the most effective line out of the republican convention, why would you expect the next four years to be any different than the last four years? but it's more uphill for them than it was two months ago because as we talked about at the top of the program, people are feeling better in a lot of these battleground states about the economy. and in ohio, you've got john kasich, republican governor going around saying how great things are in ohio. >> it's amazing that we didn't hear the president lay it out as starkly as this. if you present it this way, obviously republicans will have pushback. if you lay it out this way, it's a convincing case from his point of view. >> yeah, i think everybody was a little surprised. there were a couple questions that lehrer asked that were barely questions. they were excuses to basically say what you did, particularly the sort of view of american government.

he said very specifically, can you describe the differences between your views of what the role of government is, and that's where you answer, you know, gm. you answer about stimulus in a time of extreme need. and the president wasn't able to frame that case. i think we're all wondering why. >> josh, thank you so much. >> she said it right again. >> she did, 2 for 2. >> that's pretty darn good. it looks like a great cover. >> it is. ahead this morning, david gregory and chuck todd. we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." >> have fun, mark!

how the hell are these polls so divergent, useless yet accurate and quotable? i think we all know what we need. nerds! >> so when you see obama gaining in today's gallup tracking poll, that means that obama's interviews yesterday were even better than those seven days which were conducted before the debate. >> he went from three ahead in their seven-day track yesterday to five ahead in their track today. >> in this next round of swing state polls from nbc marist and other polls show the swing states tied. then democrats really will be appropriate for them to panic.

>> that's kind of funny. >> that's wrong. >> that's kind of funny. >> i don't like that. i don't like that. that's not good. we discourage that. >> no. >> that's our man steve kornacki. >> he's smart. he's smart. but they're a little too excited about numbers. >> we've got a big interview coming up next. >> it's huge. >> obama deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter going to join us. a lot of questions for her. also, carl bernstein. there's carl. >> look how good carl looks. >> he's got a green sweater on. >> how many sweaters does he have? >> he's got the sweater to match the swagger. i love it! >> it's not easy being green. >> steve ratner and steve ratner's charts. >> speaking of nerds!

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top of the hour. a moving live shot of new york city as the sun comes up over the big apple. >> t.j. has the steady cam. >> he's not here. >> we can still blame him. >> welcome back to "morning joe." steve schmidt and steve ratner are still with us. and joining the table, joe says he's going to be nice today. >> i'm always nice. >> best-selling author and award-winning journalist, carl bernstein. you shall be nice. >> i'm always nice. >> in washington, krkcontributi editor for "the national review," jim garrity. good to have you back. >> look time no see. always happy to be here. >> yes, we've missed you. you know, you sent out a funny tweet yesterday, jim. a lot of people were concerned about the martha raddatz situation. a lot of conservatives were. we said earlier, i think most of us agree, we believe martha will

do a good job. it's a transparency issue. >> it's a bigger issue. >> it's a bigger issue, and that's abc news, not on martha so much. but you say pretty much nothing to see here. >> well, look. i mean, it's better to disclose these things than to not disclose them. the idea that you'd have a personal connection to one of the people on the major party tickets and not disclose it, look, you should put that out there so people can draw their own conclusion. but theyed that a moderator is going to skew questions over the gravy boat from 20 years ago, they're skeptical of that. if tonight she goes out there and says mr. president, what's your favorite color or something -- >> why are you so great. >> i don't think she's going to do that. >> it is the gravy boat test. if you can be bought with a gravy boat, that does not say much about your journalistic -- >> no. i actually think, though, bigger issue, it's just good to know these things in general. martha does pieces for abc "world news tonight" and for major broadcasts.

if that's something that was being hidden, that's an issue. i don't think it was. i don't think she cared. she's a good journalist. >> i think this is a nonproblem, a nonissue and it's time to move on. >> be transparent about it. >> yes, but a nonissue. a total nonissue. it's a red herring. let's stick with what's real which is the candidates. >> it's a nonissue if it's, of course, skewed against republicans. >> either way, it's a non -- anybody's gravy boat is a nonissue. >> just put it out there, be transparent. >> why do you think journalists should hide their political affiliations and family connections? >> i don't know about hiding family connections. i think they should be transparent about where they come from. >> well, then it is an issue. >> i don't think they need to say who they vote for. i don't think they need to give their political histories. i think they're professionals capable of doing what they ought to be doing, which is analysis, reporting, et cetera. >> steve schmidt, i can tell you, they don't need to tell us

because we know who they all voted for. and it's not the republican! >> oh, some of us have been big-tent republicans. charles mathias, my great senator. who i voted for. >> this is a great discussion to have because i completely disagree with you. new numbers released this morning show a tightening race among key likely voters in three critical swing states. in ohio, the nbc news/"wall street journal"/marist poll shows obama hanging on to a six-point lead, 51-45%, that's a two-point gain for romney from last week. but the pollsters note that this ohio poll included an 11-point advantage for self-described democrats, higher than last week's five-point advantage for democrats. >> steve schmidt, that doesn't really make sense. an 11-point democratic swing there when you have republicans saying they're more excited to -- i mean, we're going to ask chuck todd, what was the methodology, but nbc put it out

there. >> we're at the point of the race now where these polls, if you want to really get a sense of where they should be, you need to start weighting for them for what the turnout is actually going to be on election day. when you look at the totality of all the polling, you know, it shows ohio has tightened dramatically over the last week. >> it's probably two, three points, right? probably within the margin of error. >> he's probably gone down to within the margin. >> let's go to florida where it was a one-point race before the debate. this morning it's still a one-point lead for obama, 48%-47%. it's in virginia where the republican candidate is seeing some of his biggest gains. the two candidates are now in a virtual tie. romney has edged ahead of the president, 48%-47%. a three-point reversal from a week ago. and according to a "new york times"/cbs news poll, mitt romney leads the president by one point in colorado. last night the president was up one point in that state. in virginia, president obama's lead from last month rose slightly. he's now up 51%-46%.

and in wisconsin, the candidates are within the margin of error after the president lost a point from last month, and mitt romney gained two. in all three battleground states, voters by double digits believe the economy is getting better compared to the numbers in july. >> and yeah. and i think, really, that's going to be the challenge for the republican ticket. jim, you look at the numbers. it looks like this race is bunched up in all these swing states. they're probably all within the margin of error if you take all of the polls and throw them together. but you look at the overarching picture where americans are starting to believe the economy's getting better. what does paul ryan need to say tonight to say things may be getting a little better, but you still need to fire the other guy? >> yeah. the question is going to be that precursor of look, even though the unemployment rate's gotten a little better, we mentioned yesterday the foreclosure rate, yes, it's gone down slightly

from the previous month, gas prices, other forms of economic things you were discussing with the guys of "businessweek." i think ryan's big test is not going to be the economy or making the case against obama. i think for ryan, he's fairly young, 42. the real issue is that he looks younger. there's probably some bars he would still get carded in. as a result, i think for probably senior citizen americans, is this kid ready to be president? can we deal with a president who looks that young if god forbid something happens to mitt romney? i think that's the bar he's really got to focus on tonight. my guess is that with raddatz moderating, you'll get quite a few national security, foreign policy questions, and he looks like a guy who if, god forbid, if he had to step in and be president in a crisis, he could do that. >> speaking of which -- >> speaking of young guns. >> -- we're holding up a picture of him looking like he's from a 1980s sitcom. >> chachi.

>> they're casting the next fresh prince. >> it's a "time" magazine shot. carl, people hate to hear us talking about style, but you know, paul, i've known the guy since he was 23. he's young, as jim said, he looks even younger than 42. 43. >> he does, but the real question is his conduct and what he's voted on and what kind of republican he is. is he a big-tent republican, or is he a faction of the radical right? and i think that's what biden will try to do is picture him as representative of a radical party in washington. >> you know what's interesting, carl? both of these guys tonight come from either a state or districts that are swing. >> yep. >> you always talk about -- and we talk about it, too -- about how divided we are as a country. but you look at paul ryan, he wins in a congressional district that barack obama won, that bill

clinton won, joe biden from delaware, a bellwether state. both of these guys know how to play to the middle. >> they're good with their elbows. they both have been throughout their political careers. and at the same time, i think that the -- there's a big job that ryan has to do tonight, which is to convince people that he represents the mainstream of voters in this country. i think he's going to have a hell of a hard time doing it because one of the real issues in this campaign is what is the nature of the republican party in washington? is it the first true radical party? and i think there's evidence that it is, that we've seen in washington, or is it a big-tent party capable of incorporating all kinds of americans? and i think biden's going to make the case, and it's probably going to be the biggest issue in the election outside of obama's conduct that it's not a big-tent party that can accommodate real cooperation. >> i think he's going to be making that, mika. if he makes that argument to the

wrong guy, again a guy that wins in janesville, wisconsin, a guy that wins a district that obama wins, that bill clinton wins, you know, they try to paint horns -- and this is always a mistake that both parties make -- you try to paint horns on somebody, and then you get a chance to see them for 90 minutes and you go wait a second. this guy's pretty persuasive, pretty smart. i don't think demonizing paul ryan's going to work. >> no, i don't. so let's dig into the content of this. spending plans are sure to come up in tonight's vice presidential debate. steve ratner has charts looking at president obama's spending plans, comparing with that of romney and ryan. steve. >> so romney and ryan do have somewhat different plans. we talked a lot in the debate last week about taxes. this is the spending side of the equation. to kind of lay out apropos conversations we had earlier in the show about what ryan and romney each believe about spending, let's start with kind of an overview of where the three people would like to bring spending over the next ten years. the 20-year historical average

is at about 21%,ed red line that you see across there. obama would like to have spending end up at 23%. romney and ryan both want it down at 20%. so there's a clear difference, and they all agree on where it should go. what gets interesting is as you dig into the detail of what gets cut, and you'll see some very, i think, fascinating differences among these guys. so on social security, as you heard president obama say in the last debate, the three guys are actually in the same place. they want to spend the same amount on social security in the next ten years. when you get to medicare, romney and ryan are in the same place, but romney actually a as you also heard him say, wants to repeal the $716 billion. it's actually $900 billion of cuts. he would spend more on medicare than ryan or obama. and then you have obamacare. >> let me ask you really quickly. if anybody has heard, let me know. has mitt romney said what he wants to do with the $716 billion?

>> essentially it would be used to get his spending down to that 20% level because you're going to see in a minute, he has a bunch of other places he wants to spend money. >> spend the $716 billion. >> take it and use it for other things. on obamacare, the last thing here, the little blue bar, as you can see, ryan and romney both want to repeal it. it's as simple as that. then it gets more interesting as you get into some other categories. on medicaid, there's a very clear difference. obama wants to keep it as a federal program. romney and ryan want to send it back to the states as a block grant program with about 20%. >> by the way, a lot of democrat being governors want that as well. >> fair enough. fair enough. >> i'm saying for viewers, this is something that democratic and republican governors want more control over medicaid. >> i get that. but let's look at the two really interesting categories. so defense, ryan and obama actually pretty much agree, they both want to spend about $5.5 trillion on defense over the

next ten years. romney wants to spend $7.8 trillion on defense over the next ten years. so that kind of blows a hole in his budget. >> let me stop you right there. so we obviously, in the republican party, we have a bit of a battle between the realists and the neocons. the realists want to bring the spending down a bit more, agree with admiral mullen that one of the greatest risks we face when it comes to security is the debt over the long run. there is another faction of the republican party, and it appears that mitt romney is a part of that faction of neocons that believe that we need to keep spending an awful lot. >> look, we want to have the preeminent military in the world and we do and we're going to. you look at procurement programs like the joint strike fighter. the notion that there is not money to save in the pentagon budget, that it is not a bloated bureaucracy in many, many areas is just crazy. >> that's right. >> it's wrong. you know, in fact, i mean, it was a republican president, eisenhower, who warned about the military industrial complex.

you know, i don't know if this is apocryphal or not, but there are more general officer s in baghdad in 2007 than there were at the end of world war ii. >> so jim garrity, there is a -- there seems to be a divide in washington among conservatives if you talk to a lot of the activists, you have, i think, more realists saying, look, we can go after pentagon waste. you even talk to congressmen and congresswomen and senators behind closed doors, and they'll be the first to tell you, we don't want to keep spending $2 billion a week in afghanistan. but at the top of the ticket, it seems that we're going back to 2002, 2003, 2004 with mitt romney as more of a sort of neocontratraditionalist. >> when you hear about the news of benghazi or in yemen with the head of the security being shot in the street there, there's always one of two reactions.

there's always one reaction of we want to go get the bastards, send in the military. apparently we have troops in jordan helping them deal with the crisis of refugees coming over the border from syria. on the other hand, there's kind of a sense of to hell with the rest of the world. we can't fix these places. let's just let them sink in their own mess and, you know, extricate ourselves as much as possible. i don't think either of those two extremes will ever come from any american president, meaning that you need to protect your allies, you need to have a presence and as romney points out, if we don't do it, will china step into this role? is india? the other options. as bad as an option is of the u.s. being if not the world's policemen, the world's s.w.a.t. team, the one who gets called in emergencies, then, you know, the other options are other countries that don't have our interests at heart. my guess is that romney may be campaigning in a strong -- as you described, as a neocon level, he may end up governing, if elected, in a much more realist manner. budget and financial matters.

not necessarily an ideological predilection. >> i agree with you completely. >> before we get to stephanie cutter, we have one more chart to look at which plays into this. >> we sum it up, we talked about the total spending target and ways to get there and about the fact that romney has more ambitious plans for defense, so it's all got to come out of somewhere. let's look at the somewhere. this is essentially everything else. this is everything from veter veterans' pensions to big bird to education to transportation. and when you do the math and take what each of these guys is saying, you put it together, this is what they propose to spend, $12 trillion from president obama, $9.3 trillion from ryan, $6.9 trillion from ryan. he's in effect proposing a 40% cut in everything from education to transportation. as i said, big bird and a lot of veterans on food stamps and all that. >> by the way, that's not going to happen. >> that's not going to happen. >> it's a huge number. >> 12% of the budget, that's what both sides -- we're not

going to touch medicare. we're not going to touch social security. you know, all the presidential candidates say that. they say we're going to cut from this 12%. that's not going to happen. carl, you wanted to have a word on defense and then we need to go to stephanie cutter. >> i think it's a question of romney's expediency. it's like being soft on communism. let's say to democrats who are soft on the military, soft on america's role in the world, so let's raise the military budget. i think the big problem that romney has is that he appears to be expedient, less than truthful about his record in the past, and this, again, is being flexible, well, is he being flexible, or is he being just expedient to be the president? >> all right. let's bring into the conversation president obama's deputy campaign manager, stephanie cutter. she joins us from chicago. and stephanie, is it fair to say the president lost some ground during the debate? and if you would agree with that contenti contention, how does he plan to regain it in terms of his

message? >> well, i think that if you look at the recent polls, the race is roughly the same as where it was before the debates. i think that romney made modest gains, there's no doubt about that. but the race is essentially the same as it was. >> whoa. >> it will be tight up until election day. >> stephanie, there is a collective roar. >> i can hear it. >> that's nice spinning, but the race is tight. it's very tight now. >> did he not lose ground? >> it's very tight. joe, look at what's happening in ohio. there's been very little movement. in florida, very little movement. virginia, there's been modest movement. but the race is essentially the same as where it was, if not before the debates, then before the conventions. >> okay. >> what i was trying to say is that this election, we've always said, this election is going to come down to the wire. it's going to be very close. we've always known that, and we've always said it. it will continue to be that way over the next, what is it, 25 days now. now, these debates are

important, absolutely. but in some of these polls that are coming out today and yesterday, up to 20% of the people polled had already voted. and 6%, 7% of these people in these polls are saying that these debates have influenced their vote. so these debates are important. it's the first time that some of these voters see these men standing side by side, you can compare their visions. and we're looking forward to the next one. the president said yesterday in his abc interview that, you know, he knows about his performance. he's watched the tapes. it's like playing sports. you have a bad game. you look at the tapes. you figure out where you need to adjust and you move on. you go to the next game. >> what does joe biden need to do tonight? we disagree with you. everybody from carl to myself. what we believe is political bleeding, whether it's one point, two points or four points. what does joe biden need to do tonight to stop the bleeding? >> well, i don't agree with the bleeding -- >> hemorrhaging, stephanie.

hemorrhaging! >> tourniquet! >> tourniquet! >> just cut off a limb. >> tourniquet! >> even bernstein is saying we need a tourniquet. >> it's the dynamic, not the numbers. >> yeah, i know, i know. >> leave her alone. >> let's do this, stephanie. how does joe biden change the narrative for us shallow-minded journalists? >> well, i think that he is looking forward to tonight. he's raring to go. and you know, they're sitting side by side. this is not a stand-up debate. so i think it will be a little bit more of a conversation. but i think that there's, you know, one of the things that will be important to do tonight is to nail down exactly details of what paul ryan says. i mean, the thing that we remember most over the past 10, 15 days about paul ryan, it was to complicating to do the math on the tax cut. they have an hour and a half tonight. hopefully he'll have time to do the math. last week romney said the baat

cut doesn't exist. he'll have explaining to do. whether this is the centerpiece of their economic program that now may no longer exist. and if it does exist, help the american people do the math. how are you going to pay for it? what's the real impact on middle-class americans? because according to lots of independent experts, and i know we can debate both sides of the issue, but lots of independent experts say there's no way to pay for this tax cut without impacting the middle class, closing some of those deductions that the middle class relies on. so it will be interesting to see what paul ryan says about that. >> stephanie, thank you so much. we greatly appreciate it, stepping into the war zone. carl, maybe not a tourniquet. carl, maybe not a tourniquet, but they certainly need to change, like you said, the dynamics. >> the dynamic that was unleashed in that debate was about obama's demons. this perception of him as arrogant. this perception of him as detached and aloof.

and it's not about his real performance as president. it has to do with his manner, i think. but it's out there, and he has to address it. and he's got to stress his record versus the mendacity or lack of mendacity of mitt romney. >> all right. very good. jim garrity, final thoughts. >> i just want to say, you know, stephanie cutter has a brutal definition of the word "roughly." if she ever says she wants to play roughly with you, be careful. but hey, guys, thanks very much for having me on. it was roughly as much fun as yesterday. >> very good. thank you, jim. >> jim, it's good to know you. >> carl, stick around. still ahead, moderator of "meet the press," david gregory. also with us to break down the polls, political director chuck todd. chuck is live from tonight's debate site in danville, kentucky. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks.

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some news anchors seem almost addicted to the polling data. >> i don't know about you, but one of the first things i try to do in the morning is check the gallup tracking poll on the state of the race for president. >> that's the saddest thing i've ever heard. me, i get up, i have half a grapefruit, i do a little jazzercise. then i check the gallup tracking polls. >> yes, it is sad. with us now to talk about polls, we've got from danville, kentucky, nbc news chief white house correspondent and political director and host of "the daily rundown." also in washington, d.c., oh, no. he's looking awfully gnatty by

the way. david gregory, moderator of "meet the press." we'll see what happens. "the washington post" says, a little bit of nattitude. your paper said it, not me, buddy. to david gregory, first things first, the nats, backs against the wall. what are they going to do? >> look, they are not playing up to their potential. you know, best record in the league. they won the division. i think they can do it. but they're playing like a young and inexperienced team. pitching brought them here. pitching is part of their undoing. offensively, they've been mostly asleep. but you see it in some of these younger players. you see it in harper who could be forgiven or a michael morse. they're not playing like veterans who understand what it's like to be in the postseason. and you said it earlier. the cardinals find a way in the postseason to come alive in a way that's really frightening. >> how do the cardinals do it? chuck todd, i want to get to these polls because they're fascinating polls, but you look last night, i mean, major league

baseball is just -- what a story with the a's coming back, the yankees coming back, the cinderella stories, the orioles and the nats. >> pull a-rod out for a pinch-hitter? >> pull a-rod out. >> at $250 million? that's pretty amazing. >> last night reminded me of the last day of the season last year. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> it's almost like a movie. >> i mean, ibanez? doesn't start the game, first guy ever in a postseason game to hit two home runs and not start the game in the game that he hit two home runs. >> and pinch-hit for a-rod. >> 40 years old. right. exactly. well, you know, you've got to get some better stick out of that spot in the lineup, apparently. now people are going to want to start raul. >> no doubt about it. >> it was painful. i'm really pulling for show walter, though. it was painful to watch. >> i love buck. buck's a pensacola guy. he's a northwest florida guy. >> yes, he is. right, he's an old friend of my

in-laws. >> yeah. let's go to the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. >> stephanie says they haven't changed. >> you guys brought it up yourself. we're just curious about the ohio poll. >> sure. >> dlthere was an 11-point democratic margin here. what was that about? >> well, look -- >> is that an oversampling? >> well, no. look, you know, you don't weight by party. you don't weight by eye ideology. you know, this is why our pollsters looked at it. they weighted everything correctly by census, geography, and you end up with a sample on one hand i sat there and he said boy, this looks too conservative. on the other hand, you look at that big democratic party idea advantage, and you think boy, that seems off there. but when you merge them together, look, this is what you find. and i think one of the reasons why there's a little bit of a

democratic advantage in who's making it through the likely voter screen is the most -- what i think is the most important number in this poll which is of the 18% that told us they already voted, they've already voted. so that's one in five ohio voters already voted. the president has a 2-1 lead. by the way, already voted voters, they're more than likely voters. they're already in the likely voter screen. so you see that this early vote, maybe that is what makes the sample look the way it looks. but it also is a reminder of this early vote organizational advantage for the president. >> and by the way, that's one of the reasons why we were saying last week, i think all of us were saying, unlike past presidential years, the first debate was critical for romney because people were already going to the polls. let's run through these numbers really quick. in florida, obama, 48. romney, 47. virginia, romney, 48%. obama, 47%. that's a three-point reversal from a week ago. we also have some "new york times"/cbs polls out that also show this race being pretty darn

close. in colorado, mitt romney up by 1 percentage point. last month that was flipped. in virginia, they've got the president's lead actually growing slightly. he's up by five points there. i'm not sure about that. in wisconsin, the candidates are within the margin of error. after the president lost a point. chuck, again, they're your polls. and then we'll go to david to get his reaction. talk about it. what's your takeaway? >> well, i want to point out a couple things. number one, i feel like, look. we are at where we were before the conventions. when you really think about it. all of these numbers, right, you could sit there and say, you know, is the president narrowly ahead here? is romney narrowly ahead there? this is the conversation we were having about these swing states before both conventions. so it's almost as if everything has been erased, right? whatever bump the president got after the conventions combined with 47% and now the bump that romney got. it sort of annual neutralized

everything. everything on the landscape looks like before the conventions began. that would be the large takeaway. a couple things inside the polls. one other thing we found fascinating, over 90% in all three states told us the debates didn't matter. that the debates didn't change their mind. 7% said -- now, among the 7% in each state, it was 7, 7 and 6 that did, romney had an advantage among that small slice of voters. and hey, when you're talking about a couple of points here or there, that matters. but keep that in mind. more than 90%. a lot of this race, a lot of people's views on this race haven't changed. and then i want to point out one yellow flag in ohio, and that is the president's job rating. it's at 47%. in the other two polls, the president's job rating sits at 48%, which matches his number that he gets basically in the ballot test. most pollsters will tell you, in

a presidential re-election, that the job approval number and the ballot test number will be virtually identical on election day. in ohio, the job approval's at 47%. the ballot test is at 51%. so he's overperforming the job approval by four points. is that going to be the case on election day? that's the yellow flag there for obama and the opportunity for romney. >> joe, i think the interesting thing about this is that as much as you say that the movement was not because of that first debate, we know that there's been a tightening in the race. and one obama adviser i thought put it best, which is i think it counts for that hemorrhaging that you're describing, that they let romney back in. i mean, there's no way to dispute the fact that this is going at a much different trajecto trajectory, the media narrative was all trending against romney, and he turned that around in one night. and you turn that around and lay it at the feet of the president and not at just the

aggressiveness of mitt romney, that was a huge error on the part of team obama. and i think we're seeing not a fundamental shift in the race as chuck is talking about, but certainly a tightening that means that biden's primary goal tonight has got to be to stop this momentum. >> perfectly put. >> it is perfectly put because we're looking at maybe just a one-point lead here or a two-point shift there. you look at the trajectory of the race, it was getting -- you talk about hemorrhaging, mitt romney's campaign was hemorrhaging. they stopped the bleeding and actually seemed to pick up a couple of points here. and i guess the question is, as we move forward, carl, does joe biden change the momentum and turn it back? what if he has an off night? that's what they have to be worried about. >> they have to worry about that, and they have to worry about somehow that ryan is going to look like a real leader. so far he hasn't. and the question is, can ryan project and get past his narrow,

off-to-the-right record in washington. >> you play that one note. you think he's a radical, i don't think he's a radical. >> i think he's a good fellow. >> i've got to do this now. >> he's a radical. >> point of personal privilege. he's a radical from the upper west side -- >> downtown. >> let me show you this poll that came out. and they asked americans because we've been hearing what a radical paul ryan has been for so long, they actually have these things called polls now that a lot of us -- we're dorks. we wait up early to actually see them early in the morning. but they have -- they asked about approval rating and disapproval rating for the two vice presidential candidates. >> so chuck todd, just really quickly, some of the numbers you're seeing and what you said about -- is it possible these -- >> read those numbers, please, for people that are watching. >> okay. sure. >> don't step on this. >> joe's point is good on the numbers. >> joe biden has a 39% favorable

rating. he has a 51% unfavorable rating. paul ryan who we've heard is a radical for months now actually has a 44% approval rating and a 44% disapproval rating. >> he's evidently america's most popular radical. >> yes, he is. very likeable. >> paul ryan is one impressive guy. >> serious guy. serious. >> smart, knows his issues. he's got constructive proposals. i agree with all that. so i think tonight what biden's job is to kind of stop the train. it's to stop the momentum. he's not going to turn it in the other direction but to simply stop the bleeding and put himself forward as credible. >> and then finally, chuck todd, do you think the tightening we're seeing would happen without the debate? are we connecting the debate too much to the poll numbers? that we're seeing, the latest ones? >> no, because i think a lot of this tightening is sort of soft -- some of it is soft, sort of very slightly republican-leaning independents. a lot of those shift internally in the polls was -- sort of

right-leaning independents moving into romney. i don't think those folks would be moving into romney now just naturally. i mean, i think that they needed a reason to get there. so actually, no. i think the debate did push him there. by the way, one quick point on the vp debate, the ryan folks are a little nervous that expectations are not in their favor, meaning there's this expectation that ryan's going to -- that biden's a gaffe machine, ryan's going to beat him in the debate, that same pew poll and all this. and you've got to feel for ryan a little bit. >> yeah. >> the base of his party believes he's going to clobber biden. so what does he doesn't? the guy's going to -- >> and chuck brings up a great point. as we remember four years ago ago, all the obama, clinton, biden debates, joe biden always seemed to come out on top. every morning after those democratic debates, we would scratch our heads and say why isn't biden gaining traction? because he clearly is the most comfortable in the debate setting. >> and let's remember that we

thought last debate was substantive. this has the potential to be perfectly mind-numbing in the level of detail on medicare and the budget. and that's where joe biden i think will be effective in saying my dad used to say, joey, once he says joey, but i do think that biden's going to be aggressive early and aggressive often. i think that's what they want to send a message and say that, look, we're going to do it, and the president's going to come out a few days later and really try to expose romney on this new approach that the obama team has, which is that he's a chameleon and making stuff up. i think that's what they want to ride in these last few weeks. >> steve schmidt, at the end of the day, both of their jobs are to lift up the top of the ticket, right? >> yeah, absolutely. they're the chief advocates for the top of the ticket. and for democrats, i'm sure they want to see some fight tonight out of joe biden to get the base of that party stable and to restore some equilibrium. >> all right. david greg -- >> hey, joe? very quickly, you realize this game is up against game four of the yankees, game five of the

a's/tigers and the steelers/titans. i'm just saying. >> what will you all do? >> let's go out and get a burger, you know? >> go nats! >> go nats, that's right. 4:00 today. >> we'll see you at 9:00 on "the daily rundown." david gregory, thank you very much. >> by the way, there's a great explanation, mika, of the ohio poll. >> early voting. >> more conservative, by nine points, that the exit polls four years ago. more democratic by 11. and you just sort of balance all of that. >> all right. up next, an exclusive first look at the new cover of "time" manage with managing editor rick stengel. we're back in just a moment.

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are we back or are we not back? are we back? carl bernstein, thank you so much. it's great to see you. i'm so glad joe was well behaved today. >> this old argument. still ahead, congressman aaron schock of illinois and newark mayor cory booker. up next, "time" managing editor rick stengel. we'll be right back.

i'm looking at it. >> you know where i was this week? chicago. chicago ideas week which you guys should come to. >> we'd love to. would you invite us? >> i'm inviting you right now. it's fun. >> do you have any idea how we can have a job where we don't have to wake up at 3:30 in the morning? >> on the cover of "time" magazine. >> thank you, mika. on the cover, it's the presidential change that really matters, which is the once-a-decade change in china where ping becomes the new president in the next month or so. what happens there is probably even more important than what happens in our presidential

election here. and i know we're obsessed with this one, but actually being in chicago is kind of nice. >> why do you say that? i'm just curious. why do you think the change in china is more important than change here? it's provocative. if they only do it once a decade, though, you could make that argument. >> you can make the argument because basically what we saw when hu jintao became president, was china was performing economically, and what we assumed would happen is they would reform politically and socially. in fact, that didn't happen. and now, even as they reform and become more powerful economically, there are some who say it's the largest economy gdp-wise in the world, they are becoming even more authoritarian in a social and political sense. they've looked at the middle east with the arab spring and thought uh-oh, this could happen here. it's becoming even more repressive. our piece by our beijing bureau chief is really about all the ways that china is not reforming economically and politically,

and that isn't good for the world, i don't think. >> you know, rick, we've been hearing that china is the rising power, and they're going to overtake us by the alarmists who said that japan was going to overtake us in '89. you look at the past month, it's been a rough month for china. you talk about a once-in-a-decade transition. that's been sloppy. the scandals, the murders, the this, the that, the repression, the bubbles. >> it almost looks like a democracy. >> it almost does except for the fact that they're on the other side. they're totalitarians. and it just has been -- it's been a rough month, two months for china. >> it has. of course what happens in china, when that happens, when things go awry, their reaction is to clamp down, not to become more open. so when hanna writes about the virtue of wen, it's become an obsession, which is about stability. everything they can do is to create stability rather than openness because it's a kind of illiberal democracy as fareed

calls it. >> i don't disagree with that. i've been to china a number of times. let's talk about the economic situation because what joe was saying, everybody is saying the economy there is falling apart, exports are falling, this and that, but yet what didn't get as much attention last get as much attention last week is that the imf raised the forecast for china's gdp growth last year to a little over 8%. well, they're not growing 10%, but we're growing 2% or 1.5%. 8% is a hell of a number. >> it's like the facebook ipo. 8% compared to what? >> it's down from 10, but it's a big economy. it's not going to grow as fast. >> but where do we start? of course china is going to be growing at 7%, 8%, 9% because, where they started, they've got to grow at 8% or 9%, or there's such volatility in the country and they have another tiananmen square.

>> i agree. but achieving that isn't some magic wand. it requires a lot of hard work. brazil is growing 4%. >> but does that even seem like a small number, 8%? we would kill ourselves to have half of that. >> that's my point. >> the question is what is driving that 8%, that 9%? how much of that is government spending? >> look, there's a lot of government spending, but i think that you and i can disagree about this. i think china's economy is real. i think they are producing real goods. the iphone that you're looking at right now was produced in china. it was not produced in america. >> i'm actually reading a story that actually a chinese writer just won the nobel prize for literature. >> also in "time," paul ryan works out. >> paul ryan works out, yes. we have pictures of the republican vice presidential candidate. >> you know i don't need to see this. dan, i don't need to see this. this is dan seymour's idea.

>> thank you, dan. >> what was dan seymour's idea? >> blame everything on dan seymour -- hurricanes, typhoons. >> dan seymour does the p90x workout. >> look at the picture of him with the baseball hat, the close-up with the dumb bell. it looks like a 1980s sitcom right here, "saved by the bell" or something. what was the purpose of this? a.c. slater, go ahead. >> this was a photo session we did with him last year, person of the year. he was a runner-up for person of the year. he obviously is a fiend about working out, and he was showing his workout. this was the pictures from that photo session. >> so this was not -- we can't blame dan seymour for this. >> these are old photos. >> i don't think so. all is forgiven. >> always so much fun. >> fascinating guy. >> actually, joe, you do the p90x workout. >> that's the p90x workout for

joe right there. >> see my biceps right here. >> oh, god, the new issue of "time" is the next leader of the unfree world, rick stengel. that's the problem right there with america. coming up, newark mayor cory booker is standing by in the green room. does he have a baby? no baby. wç

looking ahead to tomorrow for post-debate coverage, we have "time" magazine columnist joe klein here. also, tom brokaw will be one of our many guests. it's going to be morning of a thousand stars as we break down tonight's vice presidential debate tomorrow. straight ahead, we've got new swing state polls out in florida, in ohio, in virginia, in colorado, in wisconsin, and in all 57 states. keep it right here on "morning joe."

good morning. it's 8:00 on the east coast. 5:00 a.m. on the west coast. time to wake up as you take a live look at new york city. back with us on set, we have steve schmidt. >> he's great. >> steve ratner. >> he's a fip inancier. >> and in danville, kentucky, mark halperin. >> he's in kentucky. so, mika, turning to the numbers now, this race couldn't be any closer. what would dan say? it's a tick on -- what kind of dog? >> what would who say? oh, dan rather. >> not dan seymour. >> it's hot as aat tick on a do.

wait. this race is as tight as a tick on a texas terrier. take us through the polls. >> we have to bring him in for some of those. >> dan rather, could you come in. we need you to do this for us. >> new numbers show a tightening race among key likely voters in three critical swing states. in ohio, the nbc news/wall street journal/marist poll shows president obama hanging on to a six-point lead, 51% to 45%. but this poll included an 11-point advantage for self-described democrats, higher than last week's five-point advantage. >> let me say here. i'm waiting for the ohio polls. that doesn't make sense. we'll talk to chuck about it, why they did it. as you noted, mika, and as chuck has noted, the republicans are more energized about coming out. an 11-point spread doesn't make sense. let's look at other polls. >> in florida, where it was a

one-point race before the debate, this morning it is still a one-point lead for obama, 48-47. it's virginia, where the republican candidate is seeing some of his biggest gains. the two candidates are now in a virtual tie. romney has edged ahead 48-47, a three-point reversal from a week ago. according to a new york times/cbs news/quinnipiac poll, mitt romney leads the president by one point in colorado. last month the president was up one point in that state. in virginia, president obama's lead grew slightly. he's now up 51% to 46%. and in wisconsin, the president lost a point last month, and mitt romney gained two. in all three battle ground states, voters by double digits believe the economy is getting better compared to the numbers back in july. >> mark halperin, that may be the big takeaway from this poll. the race is getting much closer.

nobody can predict what's going to happen. if you look at a big trend, you have to look at a lot of americans in these swing states are looking at the economy saying, things are getting better. >> it's clearly a huge factor, and yet obviously the debate from denver is also a huge factor. we look a lot at the margin of error, and these numbers aren't shifting all that much. what's key is that a lot of the states the president is below 50. that's a danger sign for him. the economy getting better is good for him. it all goes back to the electoral college. you play with these numbers, look at these polls. romney still has to win six or seven or maybe eight of the battle ground states in order to take this. right now he's not there. he's in a better position clearly than he was a week ago. the economy getting better has caused romney to switch a little bit, talking not just about the economy but also about leadership and trying to make himself a better alternative, both personally and ideologically. >> if you look at these numbers,

you've got to be thinking one thing if you're running a campaign -- turnout, turnout, turnout. >> one of the things that's going to help drive turnout is the momentum. clearly, mitt romney's got momentum in this race. he was staring into the abyss a week ago. you look at all the polls, and you look at the real clear politics average from last night, where they average all these polls together. mitt romney had at the national average for the first time, getting very, very tight in these swing states, and i think that romney -- that tonight joe biden's got to do what dick cheney did eight years ago. he's got to stop the momentum that the democrats had coming out of that bad debate, that first debate with president bush. >> steve ratner, you're a numbers guy. it looks like they're tightening up everywhere. what's your takeaway? >> i think they're tightening up everywhere. i think he had an important point. when you look at the electoral map, what romney had to put together to win this, it's still pretty formidable.

the state of ohio had to be won by republicans for them to win the presidency. the polls have tightened there as well, but they were ten points apart not very long ago. you've got to state with the economy, the unemployment rate is 7.2%. you've got the auto thing on one side of the state and the gas boom on the other side of the state. ohio to me looks very tough for romney. >> so tonight we move on and add this to the conversation. vice president joe biden, a seasoned debater, will face off against congressman paul ryan, who's making his debut on the national debate stage. the vice president has more experience, but polling shows his opponent has the popularity advantage. a new pew poll shows -- >> i don't understand. i've read that everybody hates paul ryan. >> no, no, no. i've told you, he's available. >> that's been the media story for months. >> that is not true. that is just not true. >> he's mean. he wants to throw granny off a cliff. steve schmidt, this is shocking. >> come on, you two. we're not that dumb. >> i've heard that paul ryan is just mean. >> all right.

let me add some data to this. a new pew poll shows the majority of voters view the vice president unfavorably by a 51% to 39% margin. for congressman ryan, it's more evenly divided. 40% view him unfavorably. expectations for vice president joe biden's performance tonight in kentucky are also fairly low, which is perhaps an advantage. 40% say they expect congressman ryan will do a better job in the debate. 34% for mr. biden. >> you know, we go into this debate, mark halperin, with expectations low for the democrat. last time they were low for the republican. i think we may have these backwards. we said from the beginning mitt romney is a very good debater. look past his prologue. the same with joe biden. joe biden and chris dodd were great debaters in 2008. they're both great in this

forum, and biden is going to be great tonight. >> reporter: two things. i'm not being facetious here. paul ryan and joe biden are two of the best people in politics for us to cover. so i think the favorability for both should be about 100. two, it's only going to matter in this race if one of them has a super strong debate and one of them has a weak debate. otherwise, voters are focused on the top of the ticket and not on this. finally, i think both are going to be very prepared. they both have potential trouble spots, but they're both very well prepared, they're both smart, and i think they'll fight it out to a draw. the vice president wants to focus on ryan's budget. paul ryan wants to focus on the question of why would the next four years be different than the last four years on the economy? my guess is they're going to fight to a draw. >> this is kind of an interesting story. abc news is insisting there will be no conflict of interest when martha raddatz delivers the

questions tonight at the debate. the conservative publication "the daily caller" revealed that barack obama attended her wedding in 1991 when he was a student at harvard law school. the man she married was later tapped to head the fcc by president obama in 2009. that's 12 years after the couple divorced, by the way. abc news responded saying, in part, this is absurd. martha raddatz is known for her tough, fair reporting, which is why it is no surprise to her colleagues inside and outside abc news that she was chosen by the commission for presidential debates for this assignment." a spokesman for paul ryan and the nonpartisan debate commission said they had no concerns whether raddatz would be impartial during the debate. >> mika, what do you think? >> she's an incredible journalist. i'm not worried about her being objective. i don't know if she disclosed this. these things should be out there. we should be as transparent as we can about her family connections. i don't know if she was.

>> everyone thinks martha raddatz is a great reporter, one of the best we have. that said, abc news should have been transparent up front and said there's a connection there. >> maybe they were. >> no, abc has been pushing back on this story for a very long time. there has to be transparency there. nobody that knows martha raddatz is going to assume it's going to make her pull pumpls at all. again, this is -- be transparent. it's not a small thing that barack obama went to her wedding. >> it's not a small thing. look no further than steve schmidt four years ago with gwen eiffel, we found out right before the debate that she had written this book. did that make any difference to you that she would be a fair arbiter on the stage? >> no, but we had to referee that. mika's right. the transparency is important,

but she's a four-star journalist with a lot of integrity and woi won't be an issue. >> i was just going to say, what happens if david axelrod, our dear friend, finds out a couple of days before the debate that the debate moderator went to mitt romney's wedding. >> it would be like the apocalypse. >> kaboom. "the new york times" would have it on the front page. there would be locusted descending from the heavens. >> wait a second. obama went to her wedding because he went to law school with julius janikowski, her first husband, who she is now divorced from. he didn't go to her wedding because he was friendly with martha raddatz. >> he went to the wedding. you don't think that should be revealed? >> totally revealed. >> we're not talking about martha here. we're talking about abc news. they had a responsibility to get it out there. it's an oversight maybe, but don't act shocked and stunned.

>> these types of stories, if it was a politician who had a similar type conflict of interest are covered by news organizations all the time. no one should fall out of their chair that this would be talked about. >> except for news organizations, mika, who don't want this same sort of oversight that they give politicians. >> that's a fair point. >> that's something we need to look at going down the road. i think news organizations ought to let reporters, have reporters be transparent about who they voted for, where they grew up. everybody here knows everything about everybody. a brother that works for romney, a brother that works for obama, and a father that messes up our lives talking about each candidate differently. the bottom line, does that change what you think about what i say? it might. but i'm confident to put out there completely what you know about my family affiliations and who i vote for, and then i from there try and be fair. i don't understand why reporters hide their sort of essence of who they are because it is by which the -- the lens that you see things through, and i think

people deserve to see that. if nobody knew this about her -- >> you've got to be honest about the fact that you voted for obama last time. >> that's actually a good point. i didn't vote for him last time, and i came out and actually wrote an op ed and said i voted for ron paul at the end of the process. if i had figured that out in the middle of the republican primary, i would have said that in the middle of the republican primary. >> i would prefer to know this about martha. >> i already told people that i'm going to vote for mitt romney because i believe he's going to get the economy going. so people know that. they can factor that in. >> and they still call you a rhino. >> that's a different problem. >> not they, just the chee-to eaters on the far, far right. let's ask mark halperin. what do you think, mark? there's a concern about a built-in media bias. i think it's a legitimate concern by conservatives, and it has been for years. don't you think abc should have

just put this information out early? it would have defused it months ago. >> first of all, i was martha's longtime colleague, and i'll echo what you all said. she's really one of the best reporters that america has. i think a lot of people are going to be seeing her tonight focused in this context for the first time. her integrity and ability and fairness is beyond question. >> amazing. >> i think john fedora on twitter said it best. i'm sure she can be fair because everybody is very objective about their ex-husband's best friend from their wedding. i mean, if there's a question about bias, it may cut the other way. >>s that the point. >> i don't think anybody's acting shocked that it's disclosed, not disclosed. i really think it's a nonissue. there's so many incidents of bias in the media, that for people to focus on this. judge her by her work both in the past and how tough she's been on administrations of both parties. judge her tonight where i'm sure she'll be outstanding. this is, i think, plenty of other things to talk about with

all due respect, than who went to martha's wedding, who was on the groom's side of martha's wedding many years ago. >> you think viewers don't have a right to know that information? >> they have a right to know. they have a right to know everything about martha, not just this one thing. >> when we come back, newark mayor cory booker joins us on set, and congressman aaron shock. the two rising stars of their parties are featured in a new political documentary that goes behind the scenes of the republican and democratic conventions. we'll talk to them both when we come back. first, bill karins, disturbing. >> no, not this time. we're going to be nice and polite this morning. it's a nice thursday morning across the country. a few travel trouble spots, one including areas that don't usually see a lot of rain, southern california. let's start you with the cold weather from the great lakes to the northeast to the ohio valley. some of the coldest air of the season this morning. we also got a little surprise wet snow in these areas in the upper peninsula of michigan and northern portions of wisconsin. look at these windchill temperatures this morning, even with the sun up now, it shows a

windchill of 28 in detroit. this is some cold air. it will warm up this afternoon with a good deal of sunshine. now i take you to southern california, and rain is a big deal in southern california, especially some of the first rain of the season. it is now just off the coast of malibu and heading for los angeles and long beach. i think you're morning commute is going to be a wet one in a few spots there near l.a. that's always a hairy ride. a nice warm-up after a chilly start on the east coast. looking ahead to tomorrow, that wet weather that's down there near los angeles begins to drift into the middle of the country. it's really not until saturday, though, that we see a threat of severe weather, maybe even a few tornadoes in areas in the middle of the country. we'll watch that for saturday. that's a little heads up. white house, what a beautiful day. we're into a cold start. two perfect days. enjoy it if you can. you're watching "morning joe." we're brewed by starbucks.

if you want to be successful, work really hard on what you've been given, and i've been given this opportunity to get in congress. >> what this means for my community. that inspires me. that pumps me up. i'm a competitor. i'm excited for an election. a competition of ideas. we really have a choice of pathways here. >> that was a clip from the new

documentary, "make it count," which goes behind the scenes of the democratic and republican national conventions. joining us now are the two men featured in the documentary. democratic mayor of newark, new jersey, cory booker, and republican congressman aaron shock of illinois, who joins us from chicago also. >> look who else is here! talk about making it count. >> i'm not prepared. >> i was at the yankee game. you're lucky i'm here. >> stayed through? did you stay till the end? >> all 12. >> good for you. good man. >> you saw history, man. >> ibanez was hot. people were hugging, crying. i got married like four times last night. it was fantastic. >> that's terrific. >> what is your wife going to think about that when you get home? >> he's a tall drink of water, this brian sullivan. >> you men like to talk about it. >> you do. you blurt it out. i point out other physical attributes that jumps out at me when i look at you.

>> how tall are you? >> 6'3". >> 6'3". brian, you're about 6'4"? >> about that. >> 6'7" with my afro back in the day. now i'm going close. >> brian said before, when he was on his disco roller skates, he was about 6'7". >> i call that the xanity phase. >> xanadu. >> so talk about this movie, mr. mayor. >> first of all, i want to give a lot of props. you're a republican congressman up and coming, and you get a call from a democrat, i'd like to do a behind the scenes documentary with you. the first thing should be suspicion. no, leaning forward. he knows what i know because right now the biggest generation of americans right after the baby boomers is the millennials coming up. young people are the voice that's going to shape politics for the future, and they're not on the front lines of this election. and the way they consume media is entirely different from the way my generation does it as well. they're disenfranchised because they're online and on the web. so we created this to give people an opportunity to share and discover and create content

that's important to them to share issues of what they feel passionate about it. this courageous congressman agreed to let the cameras in. i'm just grateful for it. it's an amazing 14-minute documentary. >> look at aaron shock. pretty cool. >> congressman shock, who are you trying to connect with in this video? who are we trying to break through to? >> good morning, guys. it was great to partner with mr. booker on this initiative. first, it gives people of that generation an inside look at two conventions. not everybody gets an opportunity to go to their party's convention. and second, it's launching a new video social network, way wire, which gives our generation a virtual town hall, come in and discuss any issue that's really important to them and post it online in an unedited and unfiltered manner. i think it accomplishes two goals. it's a lot of fun to do. and hopefully people get inspired to go to their party's

convention maybe next time. >> i love it. >> cory, what does this film send -- what message does it send to younger voters who are being ripped off right now by washington, they're being ripped off of entitlements. >> feeling disconnected. >> feeling disconnected. politicians a stealing from them and their generation to pay off political promises today. we've got a $16 trillion debt. it will be $20 trillion, $22 trillion in four years. what do you say to them? >> first of all, democracy is not a spectator sport. you can't sit on the sideline and get color commentary about what's going on. you've got to find ways to get in the game, to lift your voice, to be a part of it. this voice, this sleeping giant in a sense that's awakening, turning 18, 19, 20, and so forth, we need their voices inside. there are tools that my generation didn't have back in the 80s. there are tools that they have now to influence politics. you've seen flips of that, things like sopa and the younger generation that reamly drove the debate and discussion.

we want to create more systems. that's what waywire is about, for them to get involved in the debate. >> mayor, i want to ask you too about getting along. >> yes. >> because i think from this show, i've noticed that we are a little bit divided as a nation. it's great to see you guys working so closely together. what's it going to take to get others to do the same thing that you and the congressman have done. please give us reason to hope. >> i think there's a lot of reason to hope. the congressman, in my opinion, is demonstrating that. we're trying to do it in new jersey. the governor and i have a lot of things we disagree on. we made a commitment, until it's election time, let's do what the voters asked us to do, what we swore an oath to do. >> you're hanging out with chris christie at don pepe's in newark. >> absolutely. president obama in the midst of an economic decline gets elected, and you hear congressional officials say our number one goal is not to fix the economy, it's to make sure

he doesn't get reelected. we need to find a voice to change that. if we had the social media and organizing tools that we have today, it would have been a powerful force back then. but today we need a new movement to reclaim the idea and the dream and the hope of america. it can only be accomplished, not by leaders and elected leaders, but by grass roots activism, by people getting involved and lifting their voice. bad people are elected when good people don't vote. we've got to get more and more people into the game. >> aaron, what do you tell young voters who say, why should i go out and vote this november? because whether barack obama wins or mitt romney wins, the other side is just going to tear him to shreds? if it's obama, the republicans are going to try to make him fail. if it's romney, the democrats are going to do the same. what do you tell young voters? >> two things. first, young people are going to be living with the consequences of these elections longer than any generation. obviously, as the youngest member of congress, i look to my peers who are two and three times my age, and oftentimes,

they won't be living with the consequences of the decision they're making, the impact on the next generation and generations to be born in america. second, if you want to change the dialogue and discourse in government, as you mentioned, you've got to change the elected officials. i think cory and i can lead by example in terms of being bipartisan and working together, but we are a function of who we represent. if you only get the extremes of both parties voting in primaries or voting in general elections, then you get more extreme candidates by nature, and it requires more people that are in the center of the country to get involved, not just in the election, but i really encourage them to get involved in primaries because that's oftentimes where the choices are really made in terms of who you have in a general election. if you want more level-headed, centrist folks, you've got to get involved in the process. >> cory, i'll let you both get a jab at this. this sounds great. i can't imagine who wouldn't like what the two of you are doing or the message that you're sending. how does the message, though,

and the movement that you're starting play in, with, or against the presidential election that we are facing right now. >> look, i think -- and i don't want to throw any jabs. i want to echo what the congressman said. the reality is politics are being changed by the lack of participation. think about this. my first fund-raiser in washington, d.c., was co-hosted by jack kemp and bill bradley. two guys that came together that are central republicans and democrats. what we have now is i see lugar getting beat. i see olympia snowe leaving. i see simpson, what we were all talking about in simpson-bowles, what happened in his career. if we allow the extremes of our country, the wing nuts and far extremes, unable to come together to rule our country and make pragmatic decisions about our country. yes, we need to cut spending, but make investments in things that are going to return, from infrastructure to education. this is where most americans, 80% of us actually agree on these big ticket items.

we have a congress that can't even settle on paying things like the debt ceiling. >> aaron, doesn't this apply to those running for office now, including mitt romney and president obama? >> yeah, absolutely. i think it gives a forum for our generation really to get involved politically to build that movement. as cory mentioned earlier, look, you don't have to run for office to effect change in our country. some of the people who affected the civil rights movement, for example, never held elected office. you look at people who were advocates for women's suffrage or a women's right to vote, they were never elected to office. i think it's instilling that motivation in young people, look, this is your opportunity in your forum. you don't have to have a lot of money. you don't have to be famous to build a movement behind an issue you think is important. and waywire is that platform to allow them to do it. this election obviously will be impacted by the young people who show up or don't show up in an election. but i think what's important is

you've got to get more people involved in the process and educated. and the other thing that waywire is a much more serious social video platform. it's not just funny youtube videos or clips. it's actually a serious discussion about issues of the day. >> then we definitely are not interested. brian? we like the funny video. >> a lot of focus obviously on the yankees, but i want to talk about a different sport, hockey. you guys build this beautiful arena in newark, it employs hundreds of people, tens of thousands come in and spend their money. hockey is locked out. any closure? this has got to be killing the men and women who work at the arena and a vital part of your district. how do we get this fixed? >> this sense of patriotism is killing people all over the country. >> billionaires fighting billionai billionaires and all the prudential center employees are out of work. >> and the businesses in my town. growing up, my childhood was

seeing the '77/'78 yankees. it captivated me and made me read more. we're cheating not only our economy, we're cheating small business, our jobs, and we're also cheating the dreams of our kids who enjoy sports. they've got to fix it. they have to go to the table with a patriotic sense of urgency to settle this dispute. >> mr. mayor, while we have you here, we have a question to ask you, and i know you'll give us an honest sweanswer and a big announcement. you were at the human rights campaign dinner talking how you wanted to push same-sex marriage into law in new jersey. and you said, quote, when that bill is signed, i may have a very good seat for it. what did you mean by that? >> quite simply, there are very few people that are passionate about the 14th amendment and this idea of equal protection under the law. it's crazy in america we've created two classes of citizens. >> what about the seat? what seat are you talking about exactly? governors have great seats to most things. >> right now one election at a time. we have four weeks until this election, and i will come back

on this show when it's election season. right now i have a goal of governor, i have a goal with governor christie to work with him and improve or state and my city. >> i am confident when -- not if, but when gay marriage, marriage equality is passed in new jersey, i will be in the front row. i'm confident that that will happen, god willing. >> i think that, if i went up on a catwalk right now and fell off, cory would catch me. >> i would tweet as she was falling. >> as she was falling. >> as she was falling, i would tweet. >> i can't believe you're here. thank you so much. >> thank you, aaron schock. thank you, congressman. >> thank you, guys. >> so he's going to run against chris christie? >> why are you trying to stir those waters? the governor and i have work to do together. let's get through this election. >> it's getting spicy. let me run. there's work to do in newark. look at the time. >> waywire.com. thank you so much, mr. mayor. also, congressman aaron schock, thank you.

when we return, after 40 years and more than $1 trillion spent, has america lost the war on drugs? there's a new film out now that pulls back the you curtain on on america's longest war. mike rowe here at a ford tell me fiona, who's having a big tire event? your ford dealer. who has 11 major brands to choose from? your ford dealer. who's offering a rebate? your ford dealer. who has the low price tire guarantee... affording peace of mind to anyone who might be in the market for a new set of tires? your ford dealer. i'm beginning to sense a pattern. buy four select tires, get a $60 rebate. use the ford service credit credit card, get $60 more. that's up to $120. where did you get that sweater vest? your ford dealer.

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a long time ago, we made drugs into this huge thing, and we've made it so illegal, and we've made it such a national issue with that tough on crime stance, i mean, you can't get elected if you don't profess to be tough on crime. >> first we have to join together to make sure drug dealers are punished swiftly, surely, and severely. >> you can't stay elected if you don't do things to be tough on crime. >> it's to toughen sentences, beef up law enforcement, and build new prison space for 24,000 inmates. >> nobody can afford to be the first guy to say, wait a minute. we can't afford what we're doing. let's do something different because, if you even made a noise like you were going to be soft on crime in any way, you would be out of a job. >> you will put away and put

away for good. three strikes, and you are out. >> welcome back. that was a clip from the documentary, "the house i live in," which won the grand jury prize at the sundance film festival. joining us now on set, the director of the film, eugene jarecki. great to have you back on the show. >> good to be here. >> so 40 years later, we're losing the war on drugs. >> 23 million arrests, 2.3 million people in jail, what do we have to show for it? drugs are cheaper and more readily available than before and used by more younger people than ever before. it's an abject failure. >> no positives that i can tell? >> no. i went across 40 states and tried to find judges, prosecutors, anybody that would defend this system. i tried to make as balanced an impression as i could, but at the end of the day, people have a real sense of lament, a real sense of sadness about what they do. >> what does the film suggest, or what do advocates against the war on drugs suggest?

legalization of marijuana? legalization of cocaine? legalization of heroin? legalization of everything? what? >> i think it starts with understanding drug addiction as a public health matter, not a criminal matter. it was vilified and made into a moral issue through the years. 35 million americans last year used drugs. >> i think most o us are on them right now. >> how many people watching the show are on drugs? the reality is america has a tremendous, tremendous force of drug addiction and many kinds of addictions, and we don't vilify them all as crime. we treat many of them -- how many people do we know that are addicted to alcohol or some sort of substance? >> sleep medication. >> different kinds of drugs got a different treatment, and it had a huge impact on african americans. in the modern era, we had drug addiction going back to the 1800s, but only recently did we have a drug war? >> who caused that? >> richard nixon declared the war on drugs in 1971, but nixon is a fascinating character because, even though he talked tough on crime, what i learned

in investigating the crime, nixon spent two-thirds of his drug budget on treatment, not on law enforcement. >> you talk about race, though. i go to the late '80s, early '90s, the crack epidemic. we heard the sentencing standards are racist because crack is punished more than cocaine. >> yes. >> but you talk to cops, you talk to mayors, and you talk to everybody in the late '80s, early '90s, they would tell you the crack epidemic is causing social chaos. >> the trouble is how it was policed. we all think of crack drug. it turns out it has never been a majority black drug. crack has always been majority taken by whites. blacks make up 14% of crack users. >> so when we disproportionately went after crack addicts. >> it was racist because we cast it in the media it was a black drug and black epidemic. 14% of crack users are black, yet in the federal system 90%

charged with crack offenses are black. >> we talk about the military industrial complex, the idea of just preparing and paying for war and going to war, and it starts again. do you get the sense of a drug industrial complex? that this is now an industry unto itself that, even if you agree with your premise that you cannot shut down due to its size and power? >> i made a film earlier in my life about the military industrial complex called why we fight, and i was focused on a system, and a system that preys upon people for profit. in this case, it's a system of industrialized massacre. there are whole cottage industries, big and small, that rely upon a steady flow of bodies coming into the system. >> there are publicly traded prison companies. >> indeed there are. >> some of them trying to push through rules -- this is unbelievable -- that require a minimum occupancy rate of prisons if they buy them from states to alleviate the financial burden. they want states to guarantee minimum occupancy in a prison. >> so as you travel, eugene, those 25 states, what are the

solutions? what would be better? what should we be doing when you hear from cops and other people? >> absolutely. they want to see a more compassion based approach that looks at drug addiction and tries to help people. portugal is the leading country in the world on this right now, and they really embarrass us. we, a democracy, and the sort of beacon of democracy, we've become the world's largest jail. while portugal decriminalized basic possession of drugs across the board and kept standards for punishing people who clearly are dealing a lot of drugs. instead of that wasted money, we spend tens of billions every year on law enforcement and wasteful revolving door activities. portugal put a tremendous amount of money into treatment, destigmatizing drugs and finding a way to get people off of drugs. every leading indicator in portugal is it's been tremendously successful. >> what would happen in this country if we legalize all drugs? most people say that would lead to chaos. >> i think most people get frightened by the word legalization. there's no reason to do it. we learned our lesson with

prohibition. after prohibition failed with alcohol, we went to dealing with it as a controlled substance that the government profits from, but they also make it very clearly regulated. children can't use it. grown-ups can use it responsibly. they can't sell it to kids. if you go out and hit someone with your car, for example, and you kill them, that's going to be manslaughter. if you're drinking, that's going to be an aggravating prosecutorial factor. that's exactly how we should treat the drugs because, frankly, none of them are as destructive to the public as alcohol or tobacco, but they get the strictest sentencing. >> i think i'm right on the tipping point here. i'm not as bought into this. but like bull buckley in the 1960s was saying the same thing. is it a generational thing? >> i think it is a little bit, especially with marijuana. the idea that anybody under the age of 40, i don't know what the number is, that you can go to prison for carrying around a dime bag of weed is pretty outrageous because most of those people aren't committing criminal behavior or acting outrageously as a result of smoking a dime bag.

>> also, joe, athink of it this way. bankers stole billions from people and got a slap on the hand in the media, even grandmothers are starving because of it. right now as we sit here, there's a kit ten blocks from here getting stopped by a cop. they're going to find an ounce of something he couldn't get from a doctor in his pocket, and he's going to get 10 to 20. >> if the cops don't like it, why don't they rally against it? >> it's in their best interests to keep up the incentives. he gives an amazing analysis for the incentives for cops to get minor drug arrests, and it hurts public safety because they don't get the big arrests. >> everyone in washington is in the pocket. corporate paymasters who benefit from this. >> really, really great reporting. >> it's a really good film. people should watch it and draw their own conclusions. "the house i live in" is in theaters right now. eugene jarecki, great to have you here. >> up next, top business headlines.

actually, i don't want to. >> i've got a picture. >> it was not a good day. cnbc's brian sullivan, u.s. jobless claims are out. do you have them? >> i do have them actually. >> i can help you if you don't. >> thanks to the magic of this device. >> have you been cooking the books? one made in china, okay. >> have you been cooking the books? >> no. >> can we talk about that? >> i don't cook, i burn salad, joe. >> so everybody kills jack welch for saying that the government, quote, cooked the books, and austan goolsbee, our friend, goes after jack, and then there's a 2003 -- >> forgot he wrote his own op-ed. >> he wrote an op-ed where he

accused the bush administration of doing what? cooking the books with jobs numbers. >> i tweeted about this whole thing. when this election is over, let's all get together, america, group hug, have a nice ice cream sundae, everything's fine. >> with the bureau of labor statistics as well. >> he says that. he actually borrowed that. in march of 1965. >> buried in that famous speech. >> one month later they'd have all had that sundae had he not been assassinated. a cruel twist of fate. >> jobless claims fell to the lowest level in 4 1/2 years. >> great. >> so it's good news. continued claims fell about 15,000, which is what you want to look at. the week to weekday at that can be noisy. the four-week average is what you want to look at, and the four-week average continues to drop for jobless claims. it's a good jobs number. >> that is great news. >> the bad news is it appears we're entering a trade war with china over solar panels. we slammed them on "60 minutes"

about huawei. to quote willie, it's getting real. >> that was teddy roosevelt, but okay. >> so jobless claims, this seems politically to keep going in the president's direction. >> you kind of can't argue with this. can you? >> i'm not. >> yeah, i'm not. >> okay. >> is that boring? i'm happy to argue. >> do we make you tired? >> you do. >> do you get nervous coming here? >> i don't get nervous. >> he doesn't get nervous. we make him tired. >> although sleepless. we've got gigantic stuff coming up on my own network at noon today. lloyd blankfein, alan simpson, and erskine bowles. >> it's like the beatles reunion. >> they're back to back to back. i don't think they're all together. >> that's actually more like a crosby, stills, and nash thing.

we'll call them bsb. >> tune into cnbc and msnbc, of course. >> brian, thank you so much. >> it's like popping popcorn with the top off. >> we shall return, eating ice cream.

addicted to the polling data. >> i don't know about you, but

one of the first things i try to do -- >> that's the saddest thing i ever heard. me, i get up, i have half a grapefruit, i do a little jazzercise, then i check the gallup tracking poll. i'm meteorologist bill karins in your business travel forecast. this has been a big week for business travel. today is a very quiet day across

the country. very typical fall weather, chilly morning, nice afternoon. the only exception, we could have showers and storms in areas that we don't see a lot from arizona to california. have a great day. for their "des" double miles you can "actually" use. but with those single mile travel cards... [ bridesmaid ] blacked out... but i'm a bridesmaid. oh! "x" marks the spot she'll never sit. but i bought a dress! a toast... ...to the capital one venture card. fly any airline, any flight, anytime. double miles you can actually use. what a coincidence? what's in your wallet? [ all screaming ] watch the elbows ladies.

welcome back. it's time to talk about what we learned today. whatid you learn, willie? >> i learned that our good friend cory booker was dancing around the question of whether or not he was going to run for governor of state of new jersey. >> that quote made it sound like that he thought he would be signing the bill as new jersey's next governor. >> he said, i may have a good seat for the bill signing. >> i don't think he was talking about his physique, brian. what did you learn today? >> i learned that spanish tavern has the best portuguese food and spanish food in the section of newark. those hot dogs didn't do it last night. >> how about the yankees, though? big. >> that was a lot of fun. big game. need to get the nhl thing solved so the people of newark can go back to work. >> brian